Belarusian political analysts looked over the situation in Belarus and shared their views about the current protests, naviny.online reports.
The metaphor of a fire in a peat bog, where the fire is not noticeable from above, but everything is in flames in the depth, is rather applicable to the current situation in Belarus.
Protest sentiments have not gone anywhere. The situation has changed for Lukashenka very seriously, he understands that he does not rely on society. He uses brute force as leverage, and that is his problem, – Valery Karbalevich believes.
According to political analyst Yury Drakahrust, the economic failures of the authorities can trigger a new upsurge of protest activity.
Besides, the analyst notes, it is difficult to assess “the shock experienced by the system of power, the system of state administration last year, and how fragile and weak it is today. Yury reminds that during perestroika in the USSR, it did not look like “the people rebelled and overthrew the Communist government” – the Soviet system “collapsed by itself from within, it sort of fell apart at every single juncture”.
The expert does not rule out that last year’s events greatly undermined and shaken Lukashenka’s system and became “a prologue to its further destruction”. And its destruction can happen unexpectedly – for example, the protests on economic grounds can be the trigger.
The interlocutor makes a parallel with the Russian revolutions: in 1905, even the fights at Krasnaya Presnya did not bring victory to the rebels, while in 1917, the bread riot in Petrograd led to the czar’s demise.
There are no good political solutions for the leader of the regime in this situation.
There cannot be any good solutions in the economy under the old-school command-and-control approach practiced by Lukashenka. If now they are going to print empty money to save the public sector and patch the budget holes (and this “genius idea” is apparently growing stronger), then the big 2011-style mess with the wild depreciation and hyperinflation is very likely to happen. And in any case, the economy without reforms will stagnate and degrade.
And finally, the repressive crackdown is also a risky method. An excessively compressed spring may go off at some point.
The regime has never looked as exhausted as it does now. Similarly, the Soviet system exhausted itself in the 1980s, and its end was only a matter of time.